Research in Motion

RIM is about to release earnings after closing bell tomorrow.

After the huge gap up after the suit settlement, RIM stock has barely moved. Everybody knows the EPS is damaged, but the sales growth is key. It's unlikely that the upside of this scenario is anything significant, but the downside is very much open. A disappointment over sales growth is immediately attributed to competitors entering RIM's turf and likely to send the stock falling down.

RIM's business is quite similiar to cigarettes, crackberries are addictive, available, and in many ways, necessary. RIM's fat margins have lurked competitors (palm, microsoft, etc) and it's hard to see how blackberries are going to hold their firm grip on market share.

As a holder of RIM's stock, you can be sure I'll be looking for the magical .67 EPS at 4pm tomorrow.