Tuesday, March 14, 2006

Buy the rumor, Sell the news

Alright, the mistake is obvious. I bought the news.
Knight-Ridder (KRI) is most likely being bought by McCaltchy (MNI) for a $40 cash and .5118 stock of McClatchy. At the time of annocement, the deal was worth $67.23 (40 + .5881*$53.24). The close of Monday, wiped out nearly $60m worth of the deal, with MNI closing at $51.55. Yet another drop today cut out another $9m. The offer is worth $66.19 now. It's hard to say, but quite improbable that the stock of either company goes up. With Wall Street falling out of love with old media and the heavy volume of trading going nowhere I have to admit that this was clearly a bad call. I will get out of my position tomorrow as if the deal does not go through, the breakdown will be catastophic.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has had a whopping 12.19% gain after good earnings report. Quite interesting that the trading day prior to earnings release ended up by 4%. I am going to keep this company on my radar, I feel something good coming this way.
Mike H, I enjoyed your views on ANF and AEOS. I think AEOS has the potential to move upward of $30 per share, but the recent slowdown in consumer products and bearish signs of US economy slowing down I think there's quite a significant amount of risk involved. I do agree that despite high margins and growth potential P/E is pretty low. I'll have to dig into it deeper.

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