Out of Fashion
During the tech bubble of the late 90s, no one could have imagined that large cap techs like Intel, Dell, Microsoft and even Cisco could ever falter. Times have clearly changed. The only news coming from Intel is regarding lost market share, while Microsoft is being profiled as a dinosaur by most business magazines. Clearly, the market has found a new fashion in commodities and financials, while the telecom and tech sector have been sold-off to the Salvation Army. And while I believe that small cap techs are still overvalued, it seems that Intel at 16.5 forward P/E and Dell with at a 13.76 forward P/E are simply trading on bad press.
In the last year, all business media has focused on how AMD is taking away Intel's business. Although some market share has been lost, there is little indication that AMD and its 6 billion in revenue can match Intel. It is a fight of David versus Goliath, except the ending is dictated by Intel's capacity and ability to heavily invest in R&D. Even given the disparity in ability and size, I believe this stock will continue to get bogged down by bad press until investors realize that the threat from AMD is limited at best.
As for Dell, this stock has looked attractive since its days at $30. Most of the sell-off has come from the low growth projections, which are usually a good sign to buy. While not meeting Wall Street expectations, Dell has posted growth in the high single digits, and has seen fierce competition in the PC market. The recent Citi downgrade has focused on a price war that will greatly reduce margins. The real question is whether Dell has lost its competitive advantage? I wouldn't bet on it, given the brand name and the market share Dell commands. Although I don't see the stock rebounding in the near future, I don't think the company is broken, and I would be willing to buy at around $20.
In the last year, all business media has focused on how AMD is taking away Intel's business. Although some market share has been lost, there is little indication that AMD and its 6 billion in revenue can match Intel. It is a fight of David versus Goliath, except the ending is dictated by Intel's capacity and ability to heavily invest in R&D. Even given the disparity in ability and size, I believe this stock will continue to get bogged down by bad press until investors realize that the threat from AMD is limited at best.
As for Dell, this stock has looked attractive since its days at $30. Most of the sell-off has come from the low growth projections, which are usually a good sign to buy. While not meeting Wall Street expectations, Dell has posted growth in the high single digits, and has seen fierce competition in the PC market. The recent Citi downgrade has focused on a price war that will greatly reduce margins. The real question is whether Dell has lost its competitive advantage? I wouldn't bet on it, given the brand name and the market share Dell commands. Although I don't see the stock rebounding in the near future, I don't think the company is broken, and I would be willing to buy at around $20.

2 Comments:
Big restructuring at Intel today.
By
Alex Bondar, at 3:01 PM, April 27, 2006
http://theinquirer.net/?article=31397
think again. and besides, why initiate a companywide restructuring if the only problem is that theyre capacity is limited?
By
Anonymous, at 2:44 PM, May 03, 2006
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